Polymarket Predicts No Change in Federal Reserve Interest Rates

TLDR

• 88% chance of no interest rate changes predicted.
• Trading volume on Polymarket exceeds $63.7 million.
• Polymarket aligns with CME FedWatch tool predictions.

Polymarket users are currently predicting an 88% chance that the Federal Reserve will make no changes to interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 27-28, 2026. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform operating on Polygon, known for its cryptocurrency-based event betting.

The probability numbers from Polymarket indicate a 12% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) cut and a 1.3% possibility of a cut larger than 50 bps. Less than 1% predict a rate hike. This prediction reflects active user engagement, with a trading volume exceeding $63.7 million.

Resolution and Key Market Players

The market outcomes will be determined using the Federal Reserve’s official target federal funds rate data, accessible through the Fed’s official sites. Polymarket has not issued any statements about the predictions, nor have there been comments from key individuals like Jerome Powell or Polymarket’s leaders such as Shayne Coplan.

Polymarket, founded in 2020, became more compliant-focused following a $1.4 million settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) after being fined for unregistered swap activity. The platform utilizes its governance token POL, and operates on Polygon, using Layer 2 assets like MATIC.

Historical Context and Similar Events

Polymarket’s predictions regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions often align with data from the CME FedWatch tool. Historically, the prediction markets on Polymarket have resolved per the FOMC’s official statements. Past events have shown correlation between rate changes and asset volatility.

These prediction markets have seen impacts on cryptocurrency markets, with notable events between 2023 and 2025. For example, cuts during that period boosted DeFi’s total value locked (TVL), demonstrating the interconnected nature of traditional and crypto financial spheres.

Broader Implications for cryptocurrencies

The stable interest rate expectations affect broader financial and cryptocurrency markets. Usually, rate stability supports risk assets, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC), although no direct on-chain shifts have been observed in connection with the current Polymarket data.

While user engagement on Polymarket indicates active trading and capital at risk, the broader crypto markets are sensitive to Federal Reserve decisions, given their potential influence on asset volatility. This prediction market’s capital reflects more user-driven speculation without any specified funding impacts.