Supreme Court to Decide on Trump's Tariff Authority

TLDR

• Kalshi trading volume reached $1.76 million amid tariff bets.
• Supreme Court to hear arguments on November 3, 2025.
• 36% of traders predict tariffs will be upheld by the court.

Crypto traders are increasing their bets on the US Supreme Court's decision regarding President Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The prediction market, Kalshi, has seen odds rise to 36%, a 10-point increase since late December. This shift comes amid cooling US inflation, raising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Trading volume on Kalshi's market has reached $1.76 million. This reflects a growing risk-on sentiment potentially beneficial for cryptocurrencies if lower rates come to fruition and tariffs advance. However, 64% of traders still wager against the Supreme Court allowing the tariffs.

Supreme Court's Involvement in Trade Authority Dispute

The case involves President Donald Trump, who is defending his tariff policies in the case Trump et al. v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. et al. The plaintiffs, including V.O.S. Selections, Inc., have challenged the tariffs. The US Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in the week of November 3, 2025, after granting certiorari on September 9, 2025.

The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld a May 28, 2025, lower court ruling that deemed the tariffs exceeded IEEPA authority but vacated an injunction on August 29, 2025. Initially, the US Court of International Trade ruled the tariffs unlawful in May 2025.

Historical Context of Trump's Tariff Policies

Trump's history of tariff impositions includes actions against Mexico, Canada, and China. These tariffs were tied to issues of migration and drugs, originating from April 2 executive orders named "Liberation Day." These actions are now being contested for allegedly exceeding presidential authority under IEEPA.

No previous roles in the crypto industry are noted for the courts or plaintiffs. Trump maintains pro-tariff views, claiming they generate great wealth for US citizens. However, no direct history of involvement with the cryptocurrency sector is indicated for him.

Implications for the Cryptocurrency Market

Affected assets include risk-sensitive cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). These may see potential gains from Federal Reserve rate cuts. Altcoins like Solana and Binance Coin (BNB) are also implied to be influenced through broader market sentiment, with Ethereum staking by BitMine surging to $1.3 billion.

No specific impacts were identified on governance tokens, DeFi protocols, or Layer 1/Layer 2 assets. The lack of primary blockchain metrics from exchanges or explorers limits visibility on on-chain data such as Total Value Locked (TVL) changes, liquidity shifts, or staking flows.

Challenges and Reactions in the Trade Landscape

No similar past events have been detailed. References to tariff challenges, such as Trump v. CASA concerning injunction scope, were noted. The Supreme Court's ongoing proceedings have not triggered any refunds, as hinted by advisor Kevin Hassett.

No notable quotes or reactions from key opinion leaders (KOLs) like Arthur Hayes, CZ, or Vitalik Buterin have been reported. Similarly, no updates from regulatory bodies like the SEC, CFTC, or ESMA are detailed, nor community sentiment from sources like GitHub or social media platforms like Twitter, Reddit, Discord, or Telegram.

For more legal insights, refer to Mondaq's analysis on the subject.

Read the full Supreme Court order and related documents for more information.

Recent coverage by Coingape Media provides critical analysis on cryptocurrency trends.