Matt Hougan Challenges Traditional Cryptocurrency Market Cycles

TLDR

• Hougan believes traditional four-year cycles are losing relevance.
• Institutional flows into crypto ETFs are accelerating post-GENIUS Act.
• Key assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will benefit from ETF trends.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, has challenged the traditional view on cryptocurrency market cycles. He believes the four-year cycles, historically influenced by Bitcoin halvings and macroeconomic factors, are becoming less relevant. According to Hougan, structural changes in the market, rather than these legacy patterns, are likely to drive future growth.

Historically, these cycles have been tied to Bitcoin’s halving events every four years, which reduce miners’ block rewards, affecting Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. However, Hougan asserts that these forces are losing strength in the current market environment.

Shifts in Institutional Adoption and ETF Trends

Hougan suggests that 2026 will be a significant year for crypto due to increasing institutional involvement and the growing importance of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Since 2024, there has been a trend of migration into crypto ETFs, which he claims will impact the market for the next 5 to 10 years. Recently, pensions and endowments have started to consider cryptocurrency investments.

The institutional flows into crypto, especially ETFs, have accelerated following the passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025. This legislative change has brought in substantial Wall Street capital, marking a shift away from traditional cycle drivers towards more structural investment approaches.

“ETF asset migration represents a 5-10 year trend that began in 2024, while broader institutional adoption is just getting started… regulatory progress that began in January will run for multiple years,” Hougan stated on his Twitter feed.

Matt Hougan

Key Assets Affected by New Trends

With institutional flows accelerating, key cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are expected to benefit significantly. These assets are often core components of ETF products and are therefore poised to gain from the expanded institutional investor base. Major altcoins included in ETF baskets might also experience positive effects.

This broader impact stems from the deepening liquidity and enhanced total value locked (TVL) in these blockchain ecosystems, although no specific on-chain data was cited in Hougan’s official statements. These gains are anticipated as a result of ETF-backed assets drawing more institutional interest.

Reflection on Historical Patterns

Bitcoin’s past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020 have traditionally set the stage for bullish market cycles. Hougan argues these legacy patterns are fading due to the expanding role of regulatory reforms, ETF introductions, and wider institutional engagement.

No direct comparisons were drawn by Hougan to prior specific ETF-driven surges, but he emphasized that the current landscape is structurally evolving in new ways. The ongoing shifts are driven by sustained regulatory and institutional progress rather than the historical cyclical effects.

For more insights on changes in the cryptocurrency market, refer to the latest updates and insights on cryptocurrency and Matt Hougan’s comments on crypto market trends.