Kalshi Surpasses $4 Billion Trading Volume in 30 Days

TLDR

• Kalshi reached $4 billion in trading volume recently.
• Company valuation increased to over $10 billion.
• Robinhood contributes 25–35% of daily trading volume.

Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market platform, has reached a significant milestone by surpassing $4 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days. This achievement marks an industry record for event-based financial markets, according to data from Dune Analytics and market watchers such as Whale Insider.

The $4 billion volume milestone is a noteworthy development for Kalshi, reflecting its rapid growth in the fintech industry. The platform, founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara in 2018, has seen increased activity, particularly from institutional investors. This surge in interest has led to new funding offers valuing the company at over $10 billion, more than double its previous valuation from a recent $300 million funding round.

Leadership and Founders’ Backgrounds

Kicking off with key figures behind Kalshi, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara are instrumental in the platform’s success. Their backgrounds in fintech and quantitative finance, with prior experience at D.E. Shaw & Co. and Two Sigma, have informed Kalshi’s regulatory-first approach in the prediction market space. Despite the recent achievements, there are no public statements from the founders or senior executives commenting on the $4 billion milestone.

The most prominent communication regarding this record comes from Whale Insider, a market data aggregator, who tweeted about the milestone on October 25, 2025. This indicates a strategic preference to let the data speak for itself rather than public commentary by the company’s leadership.

Institutional Interest and Market Implications

Kalshi’s impressive trading volumes have attracted significant attention from institutional investors. Recent funding efforts saw the company securing $300 million at a valuation of $5 billion. Offers in the following months have pushed the company’s valuation to over $10 billion. This escalation underscores the strong institutional confidence and burgeoning demand for event-driven derivatives.

The platform’s partnerships with major firms like Robinhood signify a deepening involvement of Wall Street and gambling companies in the event prediction space. Notably, Robinhood reportedly contributes 25–35% of Kalshi’s daily trading volume. Despite these collaborations, Kalshi operates as a centralized platform, meaning there is no direct impact on cryptocurrencies such as ETH or BTC.

Kalshi Compared to Other Market Players

Kalshi’s recent milestone places it ahead of other players in the prediction market sector. Comparable activities by Polymarket during events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election also showed significant trading volumes, but Kalshi’s $4 billion volume in 30 days surpasses previous records. While Polymarket is blockchain-based and affects cryptocurrency liquidity through its tokenized contracts, Kalshi’s growth as a centralized, cash-settled platform means no direct blockchain ecosystem modifications.

Kalshi’s regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gives it a compliance edge in the U.S., making it an attractive option for institutions concerned about the regulatory uncertainties surrounding cryptocurrencies. Conversely, Polymarket, which operates with tokenized contracts mainly on the Polygon network, continues to face regulatory scrutiny.

Role of Cryptocurrency and Blockchain

Kalshi’s operations do not impact major cryptocurrencies or blockchain networks. The platform does not use or issue crypto assets, nor does it engage with public blockchain settlements. As a result, key blockchain metrics, token valuations, and related ecosystem activities remain unaffected by Kalshi’s trading volumes. Indirect effects on blockchain-based prediction markets might occur but remain unsubstantiated by primary sources.

Despite increased activity in centralized prediction markets, decentralized alternatives like Polymarket and Augur could potentially benefit from the spillover interest. However, current data does not indicate substantial shifts in cryptocurrency or DeFi engagements correlated with Kalshi’s recent performance.

Ongoing Regulatory and Institutional Dynamics

Kalshi’s engagement with regulatory bodies like the CFTC plays a pivotal role in its market operations. This regulatory clarity provides a framework that attracts institutional partners. The platform’s association with Robinhood and major sports leagues like the NHL highlights its expanding reach into sports and mainstream financial sectors.

However, ongoing scrutiny by state gaming regulators remains an issue, with matters such as market manipulation and insider trading still under review. These regulatory dynamics outline the complexity of operating within both traditional and emerging financial landscapes.