Kalshi Doubles Valuation, Competes with Polymarket in Prediction Market

TLDR

• Kalshi’s valuation reached $15 billion within weeks.
• Polymarket recorded $1.06 billion in trading volume recently.
• Both companies are focusing on compliance and regulatory strategies.

Kalshi has recently doubled its valuation within weeks, positioning itself on equal footing with Polymarket in the prediction market, establishing a duopoly between these two companies.

The prediction market sector has witnessed significant growth, with Kalshi rising as a compliance-focused contender, backed by notable venture capital firms like Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz. Polymarket, known for its decentralized, crypto-native approach, has been strategically re-entering the US market.

Strategic Partnerships and Valuation Growth

Kalshi’s operational focus lies in sports and political prediction markets. Its institutional backing has allowed methodical growth, supporting its compliance-driven strategy. Meanwhile, Polymarket plans to introduce a POLY token to deepen its market footprint.

Polymarket’s upcoming token is poised to enhance community engagement and liquidity. It eyes a $15 billion valuation with this launch, which aligns with its strategy to consolidate its hold in the US via alliances such as with DraftKings. This might further challenge Kalshi’s growth trajectory.

Understanding Market Activity and Volumes

In a notable transaction volume week in late October 2025, Kalshi reported a total notional trading value of $1.05 billion. Almost concurrently, Polymarket recorded $1.06 billion, illustrating the competitive duopoly with extensive liquidity and user participation.

Kalshi’s strategy involves regulated environments focusing on off-chain activities, in contrast to Polymarket’s on-chain, decentralized approach. The latter’s impending token release is closely watched by the community, given its potential impact on user participation.

Regulatory and Institutional Engagements

Kalshi operates as a regulated entity under the CFTC, maintaining efforts to align with US compliance measures. Its regulatory focus assists in attracting institutional interest and developing legitimacy in the prediction market.

Conversely, Polymarket’s settlement with the CFTC and new partnerships indicate its compliance priorities as it attempts to solidify its position in the US market. CME Group’s growing involvement in this sector reflects institutional interest, potentially influencing future market strategies.

Community and Developer Engagement

There is evidence of rising developer activity related to Polymarket’s impending token launch, with increased interest in protocol developments, as seen in GitHub discussions. Kalshi’s market specialization and focus are gaining traction, showing promise for long-term engagement.

The prediction market community views the emerging Kalshi and Polymarket duopoly optimistically, seeing it as a marker of maturity and a testament to the sector’s potential. Discussions around blockchain trends indicate growing anticipation for novel financial products.