TLDR
- 72 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are over 50% below peaks.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum are 30–40% below their all-time highs.
- Over $1 billion in ETF outflows occurred in October.
Galaxy Research recently identified that 72 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are over 50% below their all-time high prices. The analysis highlights the ongoing challenges for many digital assets to regain their peak values. This insight comes amid varying market sentiments and fluctuating activities within the crypto space.
Leading this research is Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital. His analysis takes into account institutional involvement, on-chain data, and market trends. Christine Kim, Vice President of Research at Galaxy, contributes with specific insights into Ethereum and other major decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. According to the report, only a few cryptocurrencies, such as PENGU, have surpassed their previous peaks.
Analysis of Current Cryptocurrency Values
Galaxy Research’s data confirms that predominant cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), remain substantially below their previous high values. This bearish trend has extended into 2024, as seen with substantial drops in value. The report details that Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently 30–40% below their all-time highs.
The analysis also highlights significant activity in crypto ETFs and on-chain metrics. Large-scale redemptions were noted, amounting to over $1 billion in ETF outflows in October. Further impacting the market, long-term Bitcoin holders were noted to have liquidated between 400,000 to 470,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $43–$50 billion, affecting liquidity.
Institutional Influence and Market Dynamics
In 2024, over $36 billion in net inflows went into US spot Bitcoin ETF products, as stated by Galaxy Research. Major institutional players like Millennium and the State of Wisconsin Investment Board have been active in the crypto market. Despite the institutional interest, volatility has continued due to notable ETF redemptions and other factors.
On-chain activity, particularly among “whale” investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin, has also had a considerable impact. The sell-off by these long-term holders underscores a shift in market dynamics. This movement in the market has intensified the need for traders to track on-chain data for cryptocurrencies.
Emerging Trends in Cryptocurrency Staking
Looking forward, Galaxy Research discusses possible regulatory shifts which could positively alter the landscape for Ethereum and DeFi. Staking growth is expected to continue as regulatory clarity potentially increases. Ethereum is projected to rebound above $5,500 in 2025 with anticipated improvements in staking activity.
Christine Kim’s research details that if the regulatory environment fosters more favorable conditions, significant growth in the Ethereum ecosystem could occur. Projections suggest Ethereum staking might exceed 50% of its circulating supply by the end of 2025. These developments emphasize the growing importance of Ethereum’s protocol adjustments and staking robustness.
Noteworthy DeFi and Alt-L1 Token Movements
Major DeFi tokens like Uniswap (UNI), Aave (AAVE), and Lido (LDO) were noted to be down by 70–85% from their peaks in 2021. In contrast, PENGU has been identified as a major token that has exceeded its peak, mostly due to a robust $1.5 billion airdrop campaign.
Alt-L1 tokens such as Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Avalanche (AVAX) have also experienced declines in value. While these Layer 1 tokens grapple with price declines, shifts in developer activity and technological enhancements could dictate future price changes.
Challenging Outlook for Cryptocurrency Markets
The Galaxy Research report indicates that the cryptocurrency market may be facing headwinds similar to those encountered during past market cycles. An analysis of the four-year cycle suggests that the crypto cycle peaks might have been reached or exceeded, indicating a potential shift towards an accumulation phase.
Alex Thorn noted a more conservative forecast for Bitcoin, reducing the year-end target to $120,000 due to observed volatility and large-scale whale selling. Thorn’s previous commentary mentioned the potential for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in the first half of the year, but adjustments have been made in response to recent market activities.
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