Crypto eyes U.S. CLARITY Act April passage on 80% odds

TLDR

• Ripple CEO projects 80% odds of CLARITY Act passage by April.
• Legislative pathway uncertain: committees, floor votes, reconciliation steps could slip timeline.
• Mixed signals: Banking markup delayed, 130 amendments; Agriculture panel advanced 12-11.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse placed an 80% probability on the U.S. CLARITY Act passing by April, citing progress toward a deal between crypto firms and banks, according to CoinGape (https://coingape.com/ripple-ceo-hints-crypto-bill-is-near-deal-sets-april-as-approval-timeline/). His projection underscores a desire for statutory rules to replace piecemeal guidance and enforcement.

The timeline remains uncertain. Legislative approvals require committee action, floor votes, and reconciliation steps, so an April target reflects optimism rather than a guaranteed date.

Process signals are mixed. The Senate Banking Committee delayed a mid-January markup amid heavy revisions, more than 130 amendments were tabled, as reported by Mondaq (https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/commoditiesderivativesstock-exchanges/1733120/senate-banking-committee-releases-amendment-to-2025-responsible-financial-innovation-act-draft). That volume of changes suggests complex negotiations continue behind the scenes.

There is also incremental progress alongside partisanship. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its version in a 12–11 vote without Democratic support, according to PaymentExpert (https://paymentexpert.com/2026/01/30/clarity-act-passes-without-democrat-s/). That step moves one draft forward, but cross-chamber consensus is still required.

What the CLARITY Act changes and near-term industry impact

Backers frame the CLARITY Act as a market structure bill intended to provide legal certainty for digital assets and intermediaries. Supporters view passage as a potential legal milestone for the industry, as reported by BitcoinWorld (https://bitcoinworld.co.in/clarity-act-april-passage-prediction-ripple/).

Debate centers on how the bill would handle token classification, trading venues, and stablecoin treatment. Critics worry certain provisions could reshape product design and compliance burdens, while supporters argue a codified framework would reduce legal ambiguity and litigation risk.

In the near term, passage this spring would likely trigger an implementation phase in which exchanges and financial institutions sequence compliance, adjust disclosures, and update risk controls. If the bill stalls, firms should expect the present, enforcement-led environment to continue, with case-by-case interpretations persisting.

At the time of this writing, Coinbase Global (COIN) closed at 164.32, up 16.46% on the day, with after-hours quotes around 164.81; the stock shows a -27.34% YTD change and -44.88% over one year, based on data from Nasdaq.

Stakeholder positions: Ripple vs Coinbase on the crypto market structure bill

Ripple has signaled support for moving the current framework forward even if imperfect, with proponents describing the CLARITY Act as a path to much-needed certainty, as reported by Moneycheck (https://moneycheck.com/ripple-ceo-predicts-80-chance-for-clarity-act-approval-by-spring-2026/). The company’s leadership has consistently argued that statutory clarity is preferable to prolonged uncertainty.

Coinbase, by contrast, withdrew support for the draft in mid-January, citing concerns that it could constrain stablecoin yield, effectively bar tokenized equities, and tilt more authority toward the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to Finbold (https://finbold.com/cardanos-charles-hoskinson-slams-ripples-ceo-over-u-s-crypto-bill/). The exchange has pressed for revisions it believes would better preserve product innovation and a balanced oversight framework.

Following White House outreach, Ripple’s legal leadership characterized the policy window as open but not yet settled. “There’s clear, bipartisan momentum,” said Stuart Alderoty, Chief Legal Officer at Ripple, per Gate.com (https://www.gate.com/tr/news/detail/18750672).