Circle gains after Q4 beat; USDC hits $75B, 40% CAGR

TLDR

• Circle Q4 2025 revenue reached $770 million, per Business Wire.
• USDC circulation reached about $75B, expanding despite broader crypto declines.
• Circle targets roughly 40% compound annual growth in USDC supply.

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $770 million, with USD Coin (USDC) circulation reaching about $75 billion, according to Business Wire. The company also outlined a multi-year target of roughly 40% compound annual growth in USDC supply.

As reported by The Wall Street Journal, USDC, the world’s second‑largest stablecoin, expanded in late 2025 even as bitcoin and other digital assets fell. That resilience points to growing real‑world usage across payments, treasury, and on‑chain finance.

Why it matters now: adoption, 40% USDC CAGR, margin signals

According to CoinDesk, Circle’s fourth‑quarter EPS beat sent shares up more than 19% in early trading. The market response suggests focus on adoption momentum and the sustainability of USDC growth at scale.

Management has emphasized regulated, interoperable dollar tokens and enterprise use cases over broad incentive programs. “The fourth quarter marked another step forward in Circle’s mission to build the infrastructure for an open, programmable internet financial system,” said Jeremy Allaire, co‑founder and CEO, at Circle.

As reported by MarketWatch, adjusted EBITDA rose 412% year over year and RLDC margin improved alongside USDC expansion. Together, those trends indicate operating leverage as platform activity and reserves scale.

Said Jeremy Fox‑Geen, CFO, on the earnings call, the company is maintaining a multi‑year target of roughly 40% USDC circulation CAGR, expects RLDC margin around 38%–40%, and projects FY 2026 “other revenue” of $150–$170 million. In Circle’s usage, RLDC is revenue net of distribution and partner costs, including payments to channels that help issue and move USDC.

Mizuho’s Dan Dolev has cautioned that lower interest rates, slower USDC growth, and rising distribution expenses could pressure revenue and margins versus bullish expectations. That view highlights sensitivities to funding yields and scaling costs as the network grows.

Risks and tailwinds: rates, RLDC, distribution costs, GENIUS Act

According to The Block, the reserve return rate on USDC backing assets declined from about 4.49% in Q4 2024 to roughly 3.81% in Q4 2025. Lower yields reduce income per dollar of reserves, which can compress profitability if circulation growth slows.

Based on coverage by Investing.com’s India edition, observers also flag potential pressure on RLDC from distribution and transaction costs as USDC scales outside zero‑incentive channels. Keeping these costs contained is important for durable margins.

As reported by Barron’s, regulatory clarity is a structural tailwind, with the U.S. GENIUS Act frequently cited as supportive for institutional adoption of compliant stablecoins. Clearer rules may reduce onboarding friction and expand addressable demand.

As noted by Yahoo Finance, the broader earnings backdrop has been constructive, with the S&P 500 on track for double‑digit growth as more than half of companies reported Q4 results. That context helps frame risk sentiment around crypto‑adjacent equities.