TLDR
- Bitcoinโs price dropped 38-50% from its October 2025 high.
- 46% of Bitcoinโs supply is underwater due to previous purchases.
- U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $54 billion recently.
Bitcoinโs recent price decline has reached significant levels, with its value dropping between 38-50% from an all-time high recorded on October 6, 2025. The cryptocurrency is currently trading as low as $75,644 on Coinbase, reflecting turbulent market conditions.
Between January 28-31, 2026, Bitcoin saw a steep 15% dropโthis includes a notable 10% decline occurring on January 31, which resulted in over $2 billion in long liquidations.
Market Conditions and Selling Pressures
Critical factors influencing the falling Bitcoin price include the selling pressure from coins previously bought above $111,000 and between the $80,000-$92,000 ranges. Approximately 46% of Bitcoinโs supply is underwater, having been last moved at higher prices.
Despite the market volatility, profit-taking by Bitcoin holders has slowed. On-chain analysis has displayed little sign of accumulation from whales or long-term holders.
Changes in Bitcoin ETF Net Flows
The U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experienced net inflows totaling $54 billion as of January 30, 2026. This figure is down by 12.4% from the $62.2 billion peak reported in October 2025.
In the two weeks leading up to the end of January, $2.8 billion in outflows marked the second- and third-worst weeks on record for these institutional products, which are offered by financial firms such as BlackRock and Grayscale.
Bitcoinโs Hedge Performance Against Other Assets
Bitcoinโs current inability to correlate effectively with traditional hedges like gold and silver further complicates the situation, as it has not championed as a debasement hedge during this period of volatility.
The realized price of Bitcoin stands at approximately $56,000, with the 200-week moving average calculated at roughly $58,000, serving as potential cycle bottom supports for investors tracking these metrics.
Historical Context and Current Market Position
The current market downturn for Bitcoin brings to mind earlier events, such as the April 2025 โTariff Tantrum,โ where Bitcoin bottomed at $74,420. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant drawdowns approximately every four years.
Previous bear markets from 2018 onward have shown Bitcoin converging to its realized price or the 200-week moving average before reaching a bottom, conditions that seem to be mirrored in the current market environment.
Regulatory and Market Dynamics
The potential passage of the CLARITY Act, a piece of crypto market structure legislation, appears less likely to benefit Bitcoin specifically, although it may impact altcoins.
No recent statements or policy changes have been issued by authorities such as the SEC, CFTC, or ESMA, nor has there been any notable community sentiment from key leaders like Arthur Hayes or Vitalik Buterin regarding these movements.
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