TLDR
- Bitcoinโs daily realized losses reach $889 million.
- BTC price drops 11%, now between $66,900 and $70,000.
- Institutional flows shift to net outflows, indicating market retrenchment.
Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a significant surge in long capitulation. This event marks the second-largest spike in the past two years. Entity-adjusted realized losses have reached $889 million per day. This is the highest level observed since November 2022. The BTC price currently hovers between $66,900 and $70,000.
The capitulation primarily involves short-term holders and leveraged traders. Institutional allocators, corporate treasuries, and government treasuries are also selling. As Glassnode data indicates, spot BTC volumes remain weak. Institutional flows have shifted to net outflows, while futures markets have seen a sharp rise in long liquidations.
Spot and Institutional Bitcoin Market Dynamics
No new funding allocations or institutional commitments have been noted. Spot ETF flows, corporate, and government treasury demand are in net outflows. This trend suggests a retrenchment in market participation.
The BTC price has dropped by 11%, currently ranging from $66,900 to $70,000. This decline has brought it below key on-chain cost levels such as the short-term holder cost basis at $94,000. The mean cost paid by active investors stands at $86,800.
Impact on Ethereum and Other Cryptocurrencies
Ethereum (ETH) is experiencing a price movement that seems correlated with BTCโs drop. ETH trades near $2,000, reflecting BTCโs fall. However, no direct capitulation linkage with ETH or altcoins is observed.
No other cryptocurrencies, including governance tokens, DeFi protocols, or Layer 1/Layer 2 assets, are noted to be affected. The current market activity remains centered on BTC.
On-Chain Data and Historical Parallels
On-chain data indicates a spike in the capitulation metric. This metric derives from exchange inflows, realized losses, and long-term holder spending. The spot price is now below critical cost bases, with realized losses escalating to $889 million per day.
The current capitulation compares to the November 2022 spike in realized losses. Previously, these events, such as the FTX crash and other capitulation periods, have flushed leverage from the market. However, a market reset post-capitulation often needs seller exhaustion and renewed demand for stabilization.
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