Bitcoin Records First 30-Day Realized Losses Since October

TLDR

• Bitcoin has recorded 30-day realized losses for the first time.
• Gold reached an all-time high of $4,700 per ounce.
• SOPR metric indicates market stress, staying below 1.0 for 30 days.

Bitcoin holders have recorded the first 30-day realized losses since October 2023. This downturn is attributed to short-term investors selling below their average purchase price, with Bitcoin struggling under price corrections below $93,000. Meanwhile, gold has reached a new all-time high, trading around $4,700 per ounce. These events underline significant shifts in financial markets as both assets experience contrasting movements.

The data has been gathered using CryptoQuant’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which has stayed below 1.0 for 30 consecutive days since late December. This metric reflects market stress and the tendency of investors to sell at losses rather than hold their assets through downturns. This marks a notable period of decline for Bitcoin, reflecting similar patterns seen in previous market corrections.

Insights from Analysts

Julio Moreno, a Senior Analyst at CryptoQuant, shared these findings on Twitter, pointing out this trend for the first time since late last year. Moreno comments on the developments, saying, “Bitcoin holders are recording realized losses on a 30-day cumulative basis. This is the first time this has happened since October 2023.”

Moreno’s analysis further notes that the data should not be oversimplified and highlights the importance of understanding investor psychology. Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts also commented on the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which has dropped 52% from its peak, as gold reached $4,700 per ounce. They suggest “Worth watching this cross as 2026 liquidity builds,” suggesting close attention should be paid to how the market dynamics continue to evolve.

Market Movements and Investor Reactions

On-chain data indicates 30-day realized profit/loss has been negative for two consecutive months for new buyers. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remaining below 1.0 is a clear signal of loss-driven sales. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $394.7 million outflows on January 19th, marking an end to a streak of prior inflows. Additionally, approximately $233 million in liquidations were recorded.

No significant changes in Total Value Locked (TVL) or staking flows within DeFi protocols are reported. Similarly, there are no funding impacts or institutional allocations beyond the noted ETF outflows. The broader market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as EU-US trade tensions. The risk-off sentiment appears dominant in these conditions, leading to the current predicament.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

Historically, Bitcoin has seen similar loss streaks, including a 28-day loss streak in October 2023, which preceded a notable market rally. The present streak follows a substantial correction after the bull run of 2024. However, no definite recovery timeline can be determined, reflecting the unpredictable nature of digital asset markets.

Despite these trends, no comments from prominent figures like Arthur Hayes or Vitalik Buterin have been documented regarding these events. Moreover, there are no significant announcements or actions from regulatory bodies such as the SEC or CFTC. Investors and market watchers continue to observe how these dynamics will unfold amid current challenges.